March Madness Bracket
CBB: Final Four Betting Outlook
2010-03-31
The last time this many low seeds made it to the Final Four was 2000, when Michigan State (1 seed) was paired with Florida (5), Wisconsin (8) and North Carolina (8). For students of the game, it was obvious there were no great teams this season. Many of the higher seeds had flaws and most were exposed by opponents who brought a little something extra on the day these teams fell. While people talk about parity, a more concise assessment about the 2009-10 campaign was competitive balance, meaning on any given day, any team could beat another in a one game setting. It sets up what most believe is a wide-open mini tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium this weekend. Let's take a look at each teams championship odds according to Sportsbook.com, and their chances of cutting the nets down on Monday night.
Butler (+350 to win national championship at Sportsbook.com)
Butler (32-4, 16-20 ATS) advances to their first ever Final Four and as luck would have it, they don’t even have to travel to a far away destination. The Bulldogs have the highest winning percentage among the four teams at 88.8 percent, thanks to reeling off 24 (13-11 ATS) straight wins. This season the prize for doing so is playing in downtown Indianapolis, less than eight miles away from the Butler campus. The Bulldogs will be the first team to play in home city since UCLA in Los Angeles in 1971.
In the beginning of the season, Butler was top 10 material, but losses to Minnesota, Clemson, Georgetown and UAB (the first three in NCAA tournament) had people saying they weren’t quick or strong enough to compete at the higher levels. Looking at the kenpom.com for -Opponents average adjusted defensive efficiency- finds the Bulldogs have been in the Top 10 most of 2010 and explains why they have allowed more than 60 points once in last 12 games.
Butler has a star in Gordon Hayward and very good collegiate players like Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack along with Horizon League co-defensive player of the year Ronald Nored. The Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in last 10 NCAA tourney tilts.
Bulter can win the title at “home” if they continue to play the “Butler” way, which is hard-nosed defense, intelligent on offense and strict use of fundamentals which makes up for athletic shortcomings. Though not a good spread team, they are 11-4 ATS the last 15 times they’ve scored 70 or more points.
Michigan State (+450)
In the words of CBS announcer Verne Lundquist, “Well how do you do?” Michigan State (28-8, 15-20 ATS) keeps being counted out and for the sixth time since 1999 and in back to back years, the Spartans will their way to the Final Four. Tom Izzo’s squad will welcome the week off before playing on Saturday, as their road to Indianapolis has been the most nerve-wracking, winning four games by a total of 13 points, including the “blowout” of Northern Iowa by seven.
Many times we hear about coaches winning games in March and now April in college basketball, however a coach has never made or missed a shot from the sidelines. What makes Tom Izzo so special this time of year is attention to detail. He prepares his players to succeed all the time. A striking contrast between Michigan State and Kentucky in their Elite Eight games was the Spartans were more thoughtful and executed their passes better than the Wildcats, who were too casual. Izzo’s teams are 22-9 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick.
Michigan State is 19-8 ATS in all neutral court games over the last three seasons and its players have taken it upon themselves to make-up for the loss of top scorer Kalin Lucas. Looking at tape of the determination level of Durrell Summers and Raymar Morgan is striking from a month ago; were it was not unusual for them to disappear on the floor for periods of time; no more for these Spartans in their hunt for a second straight championship game appearance.
The Spartans finish the job they started last season, by out-executing opponents and making shots.
West Virginia (+225)
It’s been 51 years since West Virginia (31-6, 17-19 ATS) has been to a Final Four, led by Jerry West, who would become NBA Hall of Famer and have his likeness be part of NBA logo. The Mountaineers were a team many believed capable of playing in Indianapolis in early April, way back in November.
This is a team that just keeps on working, being average in shooting at 43.1 percent, tenacious on the offensive glass and literally finding ways to win. This tournament more than in the past several years, shows the ability to win four games to reach this juncture is razor thin. A missed shot and a made basket at the other end within 10-20 seconds has ended up the difference or critical point for all these winners.
West Virginia is very much like their coach Bob Huggins, scrappy, tenacious and unrelenting. The Mountaineers look to impose their will on you with smothering defense, getting in your face with switching man-to-man. Huggins also has shown his flexibility in using 1-3-1 zone, something the older players were used to when John Beilein was still in Morgantown. Because of the height and wingspan of many of Huggins’ players, this zone has shutdown opposing teams, nearly every time is use. WVU is 16-2 ATS in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
Da'Sean Butler is the go to guy on offense and Devin Ebanks has learned his role on this club as the season wore on, being more effective offensively as well as defensively. Kevin Jones and Wellington Smith are excellent role players, each with job to do and Joe Mazzulla has stepped up game having to fill in for Darryl "Truck" Bryant.
The ‘Teers have won 10 in a row (7-3 ATS) and keep finding ways to win, which might be enough to be champs of college basketball if they can shorten scoring droughts.
Duke (+120)
On Selection Sunday, a few wondered if Duke (33-5, 22-14-1 ATS) would be a No. 1 seed, as it turns out the selection committee was accurate in their assessment of the Blue Devils. This is as different a team as coach Mike Krzyzewski has taken to what will be his 11th Final Four. Most of the Durham teams of the past were loaded with high school All-Americans, many with pro potential. This team is more like a team of one of his former players and now assistant coach Steve Wojciechowski, just with more overall ability. “Wojo” was a tough-minded player who made the most of his talent and never quit. This Duke squad is much the same way, in attack mode continually.
This Blue Devils team can still fill the basket from all areas of the offensive zone, but now has the height with Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas and the Plumlee brothers, to aggressively rebound at both ends of the floor. The Dukies are 20-8 ATS after two straight games with 15 or more offensive rebounds. Duke also plays very good positional defense, holding teams to 40.2 percent shooting and now the guards and wing players can funnel opposing teams towards the lane where tall timber awaits.
Duke wins it all if they continue to play great defense, especially on the perimeter, rebound and have at least two of their three outside shooters, Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler or Nolan Smith hitting at normal or above figures from the outside. A rested Duke squad is a very good squad this season at 17-1 and 11-5-1 ATS with three or more days off.
CBB: SWEET 16 TRENDS & TIDBITS2010-03-25With the NCAA tournament moving into the Sweet 16 round on Thursday, here are some trends you’ll want to use as the field narrows further. Stay tuned throughout the next few days as we take a closer look at each of the games. Get the latest lines and key betting info on the LIVE ODDS and GAME MATCHUPS pages of Sportsbook.com.
Sweet 16 Round
• The Sweet 16 round is typically the end of the run for most “Cinderella” teams. Better seeds & favorites have only lost six of the 32 games in this round over the L4 years. They are 10-6 ATS the last two years.
• Since ‘03 there have been 20 favorites of 5-1/2 points or more in the Sweet 16 round. Those teams are 20-0 SU & 12-7-1 ATS (63%), holding their opponents to just 64.4 PPG while winning by 12.1 PPG.
• #1 seeds are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in the Sweet 16 round over the last two years. However, they are just 5-5 SU & 2-7-1 (22%) in their L10 of this round when favored by 5-points or less.
• In the last seven games where two teams seeded #6 or worse met in the Sweet 16, the lesser seed is 6-1 SU & ATS (86%).
• Double-digit seeded teams are just 2-10 SU & 4-8 ATS in the Sweet 16 round since ’03.
• Oddsmakers have provided a good blueprint on totals in one sense in the Sweet 16, as in games with posted totals of 128 points or less, UNDER the total is 11-2 (85%) since ’99.
Here are some more Sweet 16 Notes
• #1 Seed favs < 11 pts off BB SUATS wins are 10-2 ATS
• #2 Seeds are 12-5 ATS vs opponents off a SU dog win
• #4 Seed dogs are 2-8 ATS vs foes off BB SUATS wins
• #5 Seeds are 1-4 ATS vs foes off BB SUATS wins
• #6 Seeds off a DD SU win are 2-6 ATS
• #9 or higher seed dogs > 2 pts are 3-10 ATS
• Favorites off a SU win of 30 > pts are 4-0 ATS
• Favorites off BB SU wins of 15 > pts are 10-2 ATS
• Underdogs who scored < 65 pts last game are 7-3 ATS
• Underdogs off BB dog wins are 2-9 ATS
• Underdogs who scored 85 > pts last game are 2-7 ATS
Best Team SU & ATS records in this round
Xavier: 3-0 ATS, Michigan St: 5-1 SU & ATS, Kentucky: 10-2 SU / 9-3 ATS, West Virginia: 3-1 ATS
Worst Team SU & ATS records in this round
Butler: 0-3 SU / 1-2 ATS, Tennessee: 0-3 SU / 1-2 ATS, Washington: 0-3 SU, Duke: 1-5 SU & ATS, Syracuse: 1-4 SU / 0-4-1 ATS, Purdue: 1-3 SU & ATS.
Best Conference ATS records in this round
Atlantic 10: 6-0, SEC: 8-2 as dogs, Big 10: 14-5.
Worst Conference ATS records in this round
Big East: 0-5 as favs < 7 pts, Pac 10: 1-6 as dogs, Big 12: 1-5 as favs 10 < pts, ACC: 3-11 as favs 8 < pts.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys2010-03-19This will be the most exciting game on Friday, GUARNTEED. We like to call it Friday Madness!
The tenth seed Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech will be meeting seventh seed Oklahoma State Cowboys at Bradley Center, Milwaukee, WI 7:15pm eastern time.
Will President Obama’s pick of the Yellow Jackets help them? We’ll see, but the Cowboys are the slight favorite at -1.5 points (www.sportsbook.com), so pretty much this game will be a tossup. And that’s why 7 - 10 games are the toughest to handicap.
The Jackets will face a team very different than themselves in their NCAA opener, which is the way of most 7 versus 10 games in the tournament. Neither side enters off a dominating season, but each does something well enough to make it very dangerous. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets pound the ball inside. The Oklahoma State Cowboys rain threes from everywhere; they’ve taken 205 more three-pointers than has Georgia Tech.
Oklahoma State's James Anderson and Obi Muonelo are one of the best guard combos in the country, guys who can score from just about anywhere on the floor. Georgia Tech counters inside with freshman rising stars Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal, bruisers who can outmuscle anyone who gets in their way.
Only one of Oklahoma State Cowboys' starters - Matt Pilgrim - is taller than 6 foot 6, and Keiton Page is just 5 - 9. Compare that to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, who bring Favors (6 - 10, 246 pounds) and Lawal (6 - 9, 234), and whose shortest starter is 6 - 5. However, the Oklahoma State Cowboys have proven they are quite capable of handling the big boys. They handed the Kansas Jayhawks one of its two losses this year, and also beat Kansas State and Baylor, all who have very good big men.
According to Georgia Tech head coach Paul Hewitt, the game likely will come down to how well the Yellow Jackets can defend Big 12 player of the year and Oklahoma State scoring leader James Anderson and his hot shooting teammates at guard, Keiton Page and Obi Muonelo.
Georgia Tech guard D'Andre Bell said, after being asked Thursday afternoon about Oklahoma State's free shooting ability. "It works for them. The type of 3’s that they take. They take contested 3’s, in transition 3’s, whether there are hands in their faces or not, it goes in for them." Ranking 15th nationally in three point attempts and first overall in the Big 12, the Cowboys have proven this season that from long range, they can be deadly, knocking down a big shot with ease.
I would pay close attention to the halftime score of this game because Georgia Tech is just 3 - 9 this year when trailing at the half. Also, when the Yellow Jackets trail with five minutes left, they are 1-9. The winner of this game faces the Ohio State or UC Santa Barbara winner on Sunday.
CBB: North Carolina at Duke (9:00 PM ET, ESPN)2010-03-05The ESPN Gameday crew will be in Durham on Saturday night for another installment of college basketball’s greatest rivalry, as Duke hosts North Carolina. The Blue Devils won the earlier meeting in Chapel Hill, somewhat comfortably, but could be hard pressed to beat a pointspread that more accurately reflects UNC’s struggles this time around. However, this could be one of those games where oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com over-adjust for the rivalry aspect while ignoring the obvious signs.
Given the choice, ESPN would probably rather telecast great moments in North Carolina and Duke history, since this doesn’t set up to be one. The Tar Heels (16-14, 10-18 ATS) started the season with seven McDonald’s All-Americans and as the regular season closes, it appears Roy Williams picked up seven guys that ate at Micky D’s in his most frustrating season. North Carolina has shown a pulse lately winning and covering last two contests, yet UNC is 0-9 ATS facing teams outscoring foes by eight or more points after 15 or more contests.
It’s senior night for starters G Jon Scheyer, C Brian Zoubek and F Lance Thomas and what better way to go out than ACC regular season champs (or co-champs) with a win over their most hated rival. This is most versatile Duke (25-5, 17-11-1 ATS) team in a number of seasons as the year wore on, still needing Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler to score, but the contributions have been coming in from different areas on game by game basis. The Blue Devils are 16-0 and 10-5 ATS at Cameron Indoor Stadium this campaign, winning by super-sized 26.1 points per game.
This however is normally very competitive matchup, with the Dukies 7-5 with 2-10 ATS home record against Carolina Blue since 1997. The StatFox Power Line shows Duke by 16.
CBB: Virginia Tech at Duke (7:45 PM ET, FSN)2010-02-19Sunday night ACC on FSN offers up Virginia Tech and Duke for your viewing and wagering pleasure. It might be tough to resist laying the big points with Duke at home, but the Hokies could be an underdog with some bite, having lost just four times this season. Get the latest key info for this game on the LIVE ODDS & GAME MATCHUPS page of Sportsbook.com.
It’s the latter part of February and there has been nothing hokey about the Hokies being in contention in the ACC title chase. Virginia Tech (21-4, 10-8-1 ATS) is not your typical ACC squad, they are a grittier bunch. “We win ugly games. That’s our team,” junior guard Malcolm Delaney said. The Hokies get after opponents on defense and do the little things like make free throws, especially at winning time. Virginia Tech is 28-16-1 ATS after a conference game over the last three seasons.
Just maybe, this Duke (22-4, 16-8-1 ATS) club is seeing improvement inside. As Dickie V has espoused, Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler are as good scoring-wise as any three players on any team in the country. Lately, the Plumlee brothers, Miles and Mason have been gobbling up more rebounds and points and Andre Dawkins is being heard from again. Even seldom used Ryan Kelly has come through when fouls or injury have arisen for the Blue Devils. Duke is 8-1 ATS at Cameron Indoor vs. defensive teams conceding 64 or fewer points a game. Tech yields just 62.0.
Virginia Tech can tie Duke with three losses in league play with a surprising win; however is 2-6 and 3-5 ATS in Durham in its six years as an ACC member. The Blue Devils are 14-0 and 10-3 ATS on the home floor, winning by a gargantuan 27.6 points per game. The StatFox Power Line shows Duke by 12
CBB: Missouri at Baylor (1:45 PM ET, Big 12 Network)2010-02-12Sometimes it’s not just the teams at the top of a given league’s standings that play in important contests. The next level can prove just as crucial. In the Big 12 on Saturday, a pair of teams outperforming preseason expectations will meet when Missouri travels to Baylor. Both teams appear NCAA tourney bound, but wins over competing teams are key to convincing the committee. Read on for a preview of the game then head over to the LIVE ODDS page on Sportsbook.com and submit your wagers before the 1:45 PM ET tip-off.
The Tigers and Bears are looking to move up in the Big 12 standings and will do battle in Baylor. Missouri’s style is to pressure the entire court, nonetheless that is nearly impossible to do unless they make shots, which sets up the press. A quick perusal of Mizzou’s season shows that most losses have occurred on off-shooting outings. Make baskets and the Tigers (18-6, 10-8 ATS) are 13-5 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game.
This is an important contest for Baylor (18-5, 11-5 ATS), since they will either be favored or a short road underdog in next five Big 12 engagements. The Bears follow the lead of guard Tweety Carter, who can score or dish. The Baylor big people add more than expected and do nice work cleaning the glass. That point is meaningful since Missouri will force turnovers, making rebounding a must to control an aspect of the contest. The Bears are 22-9 ATS against teams who make eight or more 3-point shots a game.
Baylor has covered the last six head-to-head meetings in Waco, winning four times outright. That could have a big impact on how bettors view this game. The StatFox Power Line shows Baylor by 3.
CBB: Duke at Clemson (9:00 PM ET, ESPN)2010-01-22Wednesday night was a glum night for fans of the big two teams in the state of North Carolina, as both the Tarheels and Duke lost their respective games. The Blue Devils are in a dangerous spot on Saturday too, and face the legitimate chance of losing back-to-back games for the first time this season. The trip to Clemson will not be easy for the Blue Devils, as the Tigers own a 19-point home win over UNC a couple weeks back and will be hungry for the upset here in front of a primetime national TV audience. Get the latest price on this key contest on the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS page.
You can bet that coach Mike Krzyzewski has worked Duke extra hard in preparation for this prime time affair at Clemson. Coach K remembers firsthand how the Tigers can play at Littlejohn Coliseum, losing 74-47 there last year. He’s also seen what Clemson did to North Carolina, building 20-point lead in the first eight minutes of the game and cruising to a victory over the Tar Heels. That is why the play of guard Jon Scheyer is so critical, keeping Duke (15-3, 11-6 ATS) from playing at too frenzied of a pace. The Dukies are 8-19 ATS in road games vs. clubs outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points a game after 15 or more games. In other words, this is a team that stumbles in big late season road games.
Backed with its home crowd, the Tigers’ memories are fresh from being embarrassed at Duke on Jan. 3, losing 74-53, totaling just 12 points in the first 20 minutes. Senior forward Trevor Booker is the energy of this team and its most important player. When Clemson (15-4, 9-7 ATS) has to set up offense, allowing Booker to at least touch the ball, good things usually follow. He’s skilled around the basket and finds open shooters off the bounce. Unquestionably, the Tigers play better at home and they are 21-10 ATS when they force 14 to 18 turnovers, making it paramount to force Duke into mistakes.
Duke is off an upset loss at N.C. State and looks for quick turnaround victory, since they are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS after a spread loss in lined games. Clemson is 9-1 and 6-1 ATS on their home floor and last year’s win at home was the first in ten tries vs. Duke, with 4-5-1 ATS record.
The StatFox Power Line shows Duke by 3, but this is how StatFox’s Steve Makinen sees the game in the Platinum Sheet: The ESPN Game Day crew will be on hand for Saturday’s showdown between Duke and Clemson, and the Tigers should be jacked for the occasion. Typically I don’t overrate this particular aspect unless I believe the team is capable of pulling the big upset with another slight motivational edge. Clemson is capable of doing it. The Tigers have been absolutely dominant at home, going 9-1 SU & 6-1 ATS while outscoring opponents by 22 PPG. They own a 19-point decision over North Carolina at home a week ago. Clemson will also be motivated by the fact that their own field goal shooting didn’t make the recent trip to Durham when Duke blasted them by 21 points. It was easily the Tigers’ worst outing of the year and they will be hungry to make amends. This one should be all it gets cracked up to be. Play: Clemson
CBB: Big East and ACC in Betting Spotlight2010-01-13Four ranked teams from two of the premier conferences will showcase their talents this Wednesday. In the Big East, No. 16 Pittsburgh hits the road to No. 15 Connecticut, with the Panthers looking to stay unbeaten in conference play. Later, 12th ranked North Carolina visits 24th ranked Clemson, a test of wills for teams trying to steady recent developments. For sports bettors, this is a very busy Hump Day. Read on for brief looks at both of these key games, then head over to the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS and TEAM STATISTICS pages on Sportsbook.com for more on Wednesday’s college hoops betting board.
Panthers on the prowl
It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Pittsburgh (13-2, 6-5-2 ATS) lost too much talent from a season ago and had too many gaping holes to be considered nothing more than a team that would finish fifth to eighth in the Big East. Instead, Jamie Dixon of Pitt is the mid-season favorite for national coach of the year with what he’s done in the Steel City. The emergence of Ashton Gibbs and the return of Gilbert Brown and Jermaine Dixon have seen the Panthers take off, and with another conference upset, would stay tied with Villanova for the top spot. Pitt has always been able to play with physical teams and is 22-7 ATS versus clubs who average 40 or more rebounds per game.
Connecticut (11-4, 5-7-1 ATS) needs a positive experience after giving away a 19-point lead at Georgetown and falling 72-69 this past Saturday.” It’s the most heartbreaking loss this year. It’s not even close,” coach Jim Calhoun said. “We took our 20 minutes of work, threw it away and said, ‘OK, now let’s play an even game.’”
Turnovers were the detriment for the Huskies, committing 15 in all. Coach Calhoun will try to get his guards to value the possession of the ball more, since UConn is 9-0 (4-4 ATS) when they commit 13 or less turnovers.
Connecticut is a six-point favorite at Sportsbook.com and is on a run of 17-5 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. The Huskies are among the best defensive teams in the country holding teams to 37.2 percent shooting and will have to contain Pittsburgh. The Panthers magic formula for winning is shooting over 40 percent, as they are 12-0 and 5-4-2 ATS.
This Big East battle starts at 7 Eastern on ESPN2 with Connecticut 6-2 and 4-4 ATS in last eight meetings at home.
ACC foes on the mend
North Carolina (12-4, 6-8 ATS) was stunned last week at College of Charleston, 82-79, but came back and beat Virginia Tech by 14 in the next outing. Clemson was duped at Duke, losing by 21 points and rebounded with 72-56 win over Boston College as nine-point favorites. Each ACC will look to continue winning ways this evening.
One of Roy Williams’ coaching axioms is he doesn’t play favorites. If one of his players is playing great and the other average, the one giving the better effort will start and use up the majority of minutes, that’s his belief. Normally by now, Williams is into a comfortable starting five with the other roles having been defined, but not this year, as many players have taken two steps forward and one back. The Tar Heels are 40-25 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.
You can’t help but be impressed with the job Oliver Purnell has done at Clemson (13-5, 8-5 ATS). In the past, losing as many quality players as this past year would have spelled rebuilding on the South Carolina campus, but not these days. Purnell has imported a continual flow of players like freshman Noel Johnson and Devin Booker, meshing with established players like Trevor Booker and Demontez Stitt. Purnell, realizing he has 10 players that are similar ability-wise, opened up competition for starting spots, to keep guys hungry. That depth figures to help the Tigers, who are 11-2 ATS at home against teams making 45 percent of their shots or better.
Clemson will seek to improve upon a 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS mark at Littlejohn Coliseum vs. the Heels, and is a four-point favorite to do so. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS at home versus good three-point shooting teams making 37 percent or more of their attempts over the last three seasons.
This is the 9:00 Eastern clash on ESPN and North Carolina is 3-11 ATS off a win against a conference win since last season.
The StatFox Power Lines for these games show Connecticut by 3, Clemson by 3